A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
